I wrote last Friday about the China/India hole in the American climate strategy:
America appears to lack a high-probability strategy for how to get China, India, and Russia to agree to self-impose a significant positive carbon price.
The Administration and its Congressional allies are trying to impose a significant carbon price in the U.S. through something like the Waxman-Markey bill, while entering an international negotiation process in which as much as 60% of global carbon emissions could face little to no carbon price. The likely outcome would dramatically tilt the global economic playing field, harming U.S. workers and firms relative to their counterparts in China and India.At the same time, it would make little progress toward addressing the risk of severe global climate change, as a large portion of global carbon emissions would remain effectively uncapped.
In that post I identified two questions that American policymakers need to answer to fill that hole. The first of those was:
What tools should we use to try to convince the government of China to impose a positive carbon price as part of a global effort? (choose one or more)
- Leadership: U.S. goes first and self-imposes a price. Then we use diplomacy to try to convince the Chinese to do the same.
- Carrots: The U.S. pays the Chinese to reduce their emissions.
- Sticks: The U.S. imposes import tariffs on Chinese goods as long as the government China does not impose a carbon price.
I now see that I was eight days behind Dr. Paul Krugman in identifying this challenge. On May 14th, he wrote in his New York Times column “Empire of Carbon“:
(T)he people I talk to are increasingly optimistic that Congress will soon establish a cap-and-trade system that limits emissions of greenhouse gases, with the limits growing steadily tighter over time. And once America acts, we can expect much of the world to follow our lead.
… But that still leaves the problem of China, where I have been for most of the last week. … But China cannot continue along its current path because the planet can’t handle the strain. … And the growth of emissions from China … already the world’s largest producer of carbon dioxide … is one main reason for this new pessimism.
I’d like to compare where I think Dr. Krugman stands on various elements of the strategic question I […]