Sources for last moderate fiscal Democrat post

  • Blue line (President Obama’s Budget): Table S-1 of the President’s budget.
  • Gray line (historic debt): Historical Budget Data from January 2015 Baseline from CBO, Tab 1. The parenthetical about pre-crisis average debt/GDP between 35 and 40% similarly comes from this table.
  • Yellow line (CBO long-term baseline): July 2014 Release from The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook from CBO, Tab 6. This is their “extended alternative fiscal scenario,” roughly CBO’s view of a current policy baseline rather than a current law baseline.
  • Green line (Bowles-Simpson proposal): Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform Figure 4 and Figure 16. I interpolated the intervening years in table 4 to fill in the long-term line to fit the 5-year intervals they specified.
  • Red line (House Republican 2014 proposal): House Budget Committee’s Summary Tables S-1 and S-6. I interpolated the intervening years in table 4 to fill in the long-term line to fit the 5-year intervals they specified.
I feel bad about combining projections from different years and against different baselines onto a single graph, but I’m convinced that (1) there’s no better alternative; (2) I’ve used the best available data for a fair comparison; and (3) these technical problems do not undermine the analysis or conclusions of the post. I’m helped by comparing absolute levels in each case rather than deltas relative to baselines.
By | 2017-05-23T19:06:07+00:00 Friday, 6 February 2015|