KeithHennessey.com

I want to propose a four-part test for measuring any particular bill on health care cost control.

short run

long run

Federal deficit

1

2

Government health care spending

X

3

Private health care spending

X

4

In each case, I will define the test so that “yes” is a good outcome:
Test 1:  The bill does not increase the federal deficit in the short run.
Test 2:  The [...]

The White House has released a letter from the President to the two Senate Chairmen who are working on (different) versions of health care reform:  Senator Kennedy (D-MA), Chairman of the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, and Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.  The letter is dated yesterday and [...]

Today the Administration released more detail for the President’s budget.  The President tried to emphasize his fiscal responsibility by highlighting some of the programs he proposes to terminate or reduce.  Budget Director Orszag released the Terminations, Reductions, and Savings volume.
This morning the President said,
But one of the pillars of this foundation is fiscal responsibility.  We [...]

I had missed this from the President’s remarks to Congress on February 24th:
This budget builds on these reforms.  It includes a historic commitment to comprehensive health care reform – a down-payment on the principle that we must have quality, affordable health care for every American.

Budget Director Peter Orszag repeated the “down payment” language on his [...]

Suppose I bought an iPhone yesterday for $500.
Suppose I argue that I will save $2000 this week, because I intend to refraining from buying an additional iPhone today, nor will I buy one this Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
Suppose I plan to buy a new flat screen TV tomorrow for $1500.
Can I claim I that have [...]

There has been a lot of debate about whether the President’s budget improves or worsens the future deficit picture.  This is a debate mostly about baselines – what do you assume would happen otherwise?  Rather than engaging in that debate here, I am going to look at the results of what the President has proposed.
What [...]

Yesterday I wrote about the history of tax increases since World War II, and about the battle over the total level of taxation.  Now I want to turn to spending.
I am a low-tax guy.  I have worked on tax issues for 12 of my 15 years in Washington, helping elected officials lower taxes and prevent [...]

Now that we have reviewed how big a bite the government has taken out of the economy over time, let’s examine the competing tax proposals for the near future.
Revenues are only one element of a budget proposal.  For a complete picture of the effect of a budget proposal on the rest of the economy, we [...]

Critical policy fights sometimes happen long before a bill comes up for a vote.  Legislative process and strategy intersect early to determine the balance of power for a future vote on policy.  Health care legislation is several months away from a floor vote, but the tactical maneuvering has already begun.
Fair warning:  we’re going to work [...]

Budget Director Peter Orszag wrote on his blog yesterday that he thinks “Debt held by the public net of financial assets is the most meaningful measure of current federal debt.”
I wrote earlier today why I think Director Orszag’s new metric is misleading and dangerous.  Now, however, I’m going to take his argument [...]