Comments on: Updated health care projections http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/ Your guide to American economic policy Wed, 17 Mar 2010 19:57:44 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: Lawrence Auster http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13489 Lawrence Auster Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:02:05 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13489 Thanks for the reply. But it amounts to saying that the rule is this way because it is this way. The rule continues to defy common sense, or, at least, the common sense of reasonable persons not conversant with the rules. .<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13489','Lawrence Auster'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13489','Lawrence Auster','Thanks for the reply. But it amounts to saying that the rule is this way because it is this way. The rule continues to defy common sense, or, at least, the common sense of reasonable persons not conversant with the rules. .'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Thanks for the reply. But it amounts to saying that the rule is this way because it is this way. The rule continues to defy common sense, or, at least, the common sense of reasonable persons not conversant with the rules. .
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]]> By: Keith Hennessey http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13488 Keith Hennessey Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:14:46 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13488 The motion to proceed applies to a bill. Senator Reid will be offering a "complete substitute" amendment to that bill. This needs no motion to proceed. His amendment will be subject to many amendments of its own. Both the Reid amendment and any amendment to it could be filibustered and require its own cloture vote. I suggest avoiding the "what is the point" questions when focusing on Senate procedure. The rules exist so that they work in a wide range of cases. There are points in the process of implementing those rules, like cloture on the motion to proceed to a substantively unrelated bill, which may seem to not substantively "make sense." In my view, as long as those rules are consistently implemented over time and everyone can understand them, that's acceptable. As for "replacing it by [an amendment] to turn America into a socialist country," Leader Reid would need just as many votes (60) to do that as to adopt a freestanding bill that achieves the same goal. <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13488','Keith Hennessey'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13488','Keith Hennessey','The motion to proceed applies to a bill. Senator Reid will be offering a "complete substitute" amendment to that bill. This needs no motion to proceed. \n \nHis amendment will be subject to many amendments of its own. Both the Reid amendment and any amendment to it could be filibustered and require its own cloture vote. \n \nI suggest avoiding the "what is the point" questions when focusing on Senate procedure. The rules exist so that they work in a wide range of cases. There are points in the process of implementing those rules, like cloture on the motion to proceed to a substantively unrelated bill, which may seem to not substantively "make sense." In my view, as long as those rules are consistently implemented over time and everyone can understand them, that's acceptable. \n \nAs for "replacing it by [an amendment] to turn America into a socialist country," Leader Reid would need just as many votes (60) to do that as to adopt a freestanding bill that achieves the same goal. '); return false;">Quote</a></div> The motion to proceed applies to a bill. Senator Reid will be offering a "complete substitute" amendment to that bill. This needs no motion to proceed.

His amendment will be subject to many amendments of its own. Both the Reid amendment and any amendment to it could be filibustered and require its own cloture vote.

I suggest avoiding the "what is the point" questions when focusing on Senate procedure. The rules exist so that they work in a wide range of cases. There are points in the process of implementing those rules, like cloture on the motion to proceed to a substantively unrelated bill, which may seem to not substantively "make sense." In my view, as long as those rules are consistently implemented over time and everyone can understand them, that's acceptable.

As for "replacing it by [an amendment] to turn America into a socialist country," Leader Reid would need just as many votes (60) to do that as to adopt a freestanding bill that achieves the same goal.

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]]> By: Lawrence Auster http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13482 Lawrence Auster Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:04:04 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13482 Mr. Hennesey, A question about your useful article: If the cloture vote that took place on Saturday night, Nov. 21, was on the unrelated House bill, how then can debate proceed on the Reid substitute for the House bill? Doesn't that substitute bill have to have its OWN procedure, consisting of (a) a motion to proceed; followed by (b) cloture on the motion to proceed; followed by (c) an up or down majority vote the he motion to proceed, before it can be debated? Look at it this way: if the actual bill that is going to be debated (the Reid substitute) is a completely different bill from the bill on which the motion to proceed was actually passed, what is the point of even requiring cloture on a bill to proceed with a bill? The Senate could have a cloture vote on some meaningless piece of text, and then replace it by a bill to turn America into a socialist country.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13482','Lawrence Auster'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13482','Lawrence Auster','Mr. Hennesey, \r\n\r\nA question about your useful article: \r\n\r\nIf the cloture vote that took place on Saturday night, Nov. 21, was on the unrelated House bill, how then can debate proceed on the Reid substitute for the House bill? Doesn\'t that substitute bill have to have its OWN procedure, consisting of (a) a motion to proceed; followed by (b) cloture on the motion to proceed; followed by (c) an up or down majority vote the he motion to proceed, before it can be debated? \r\n\r\nLook at it this way: if the actual bill that is going to be debated (the Reid substitute) is a completely different bill from the bill on which the motion to proceed was actually passed, what is the point of even requiring cloture on a bill to proceed with a bill? The Senate could have a cloture vote on some meaningless piece of text, and then replace it by a bill to turn America into a socialist country.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Mr. Hennesey,

A question about your useful article:

If the cloture vote that took place on Saturday night, Nov. 21, was on the unrelated House bill, how then can debate proceed on the Reid substitute for the House bill? Doesn’t that substitute bill have to have its OWN procedure, consisting of (a) a motion to proceed; followed by (b) cloture on the motion to proceed; followed by (c) an up or down majority vote the he motion to proceed, before it can be debated?

Look at it this way: if the actual bill that is going to be debated (the Reid substitute) is a completely different bill from the bill on which the motion to proceed was actually passed, what is the point of even requiring cloture on a bill to proceed with a bill? The Senate could have a cloture vote on some meaningless piece of text, and then replace it by a bill to turn America into a socialist country.

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]]> By: Yehudittx http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13469 Yehudittx Mon, 23 Nov 2009 09:46:09 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13469 FWIW on InTrade the contract is: "A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009" and there are versions for March 09 and June 09. They are all very bearish. <a href="http://tinyurl.com/y9boxm9" target="_blank">http://tinyurl.com/y9boxm9</a> <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13469','Yehudittx'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13469','Yehudittx','FWIW on InTrade the contract is: "A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009" and there are versions for March 09 and June 09. They are all very bearish. \n \n<a href=\"http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/y9boxm9\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/y9boxm9<\/a> \n '); return false;">Quote</a></div> FWIW on InTrade the contract is: "A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009" and there are versions for March 09 and June 09. They are all very bearish.

http://tinyurl.com/y9boxm9

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]]> By: The Greenroom » Forum Archive » ObamaCare: Odds, anyone? http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13464 The Greenroom » Forum Archive » ObamaCare: Odds, anyone? Mon, 23 Nov 2009 05:48:57 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13464 [...] Congress, Keith Hennessey updated his odds last week: I am lowering from 60% to 50% my projection for the success of [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13464','The Greenroom » Forum Archive » ObamaCare: Odds, anyone?'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13464','The Greenroom » Forum Archive » ObamaCare: Odds, anyone?','[...] Congress, Keith Hennessey updated his odds last week: I am lowering from 60% to 50% my projection for the success of [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Congress, Keith Hennessey updated his odds last week: I am lowering from 60% to 50% my projection for the success of [...]
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]]> By: Jon Kessler http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13347 Jon Kessler Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:27:07 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13347 Perfect description of the inside ball. Clearly, he does not have 60 votes right now or he would have filed this morning or this afternoon. Let's say he gets Lincoln, Nelson et al. Another senate leader would not risk beginning debate if he didn't have the votes to end it. Given Liberman's position, that's where Harry is. He will risk walking into that dead end alley 'cause he clearly doesn't care about being procedurally defeated inside the Beltway. Say what you will, he's a grinder. <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13347','Jon Kessler'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13347','Jon Kessler','Perfect description of the inside ball. Clearly, he does not have 60 votes right now or he would have filed this morning or this afternoon. Let's say he gets Lincoln, Nelson et al. Another senate leader would not risk beginning debate if he didn't have the votes to end it. Given Liberman's position, that's where Harry is. He will risk walking into that dead end alley 'cause he clearly doesn't care about being procedurally defeated inside the Beltway. Say what you will, he's a grinder. '); return false;">Quote</a></div> Perfect description of the inside ball. Clearly, he does not have 60 votes right now or he would have filed this morning or this afternoon. Let's say he gets Lincoln, Nelson et al. Another senate leader would not risk beginning debate if he didn't have the votes to end it. Given Liberman's position, that's where Harry is. He will risk walking into that dead end alley 'cause he clearly doesn't care about being procedurally defeated inside the Beltway. Say what you will, he's a grinder.
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]]> By: Batman http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13343 Batman Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:01:04 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13343 The power of the Congress and the President to offer just about any conceivable bribe to wavering Senators is enormous. I frankly do not believe that a single Democrat Senator will vote against cloture in December. Since Sanders is to the left of all of them, you can add his vote too. That leaves only Lieberman. On the other side Snowe is the only Republican whom I think might vote for cloture. So it looks like 59 votes maximum at this point. If Reid knows he has only 59 votes, what are his options? A defeat just before the Christmas recess will look very bad for Obama. So will he postpone the vote? Or will he try some other parliamentary maneuver? I predict the latter. As Brinty wrote above, is there anything to stop him from turning to reconciliation in mid-stream? Here is a technical question: can Vice President Biden only vote when there is a mathematical tie -- 50/50 or 49/49 -- or is there any loophole that permits him to break a deadlock of any other kind? I know this sounds like a dumb question but I want to be sure that there is no previously untested mechanism that they can use. <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13343','Batman'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13343','Batman','The power of the Congress and the President to offer just about any conceivable bribe to wavering Senators is enormous. I frankly do not believe that a single Democrat Senator will vote against cloture in December. Since Sanders is to the left of all of them, you can add his vote too. That leaves only Lieberman. On the other side Snowe is the only Republican whom I think might vote for cloture. So it looks like 59 votes maximum at this point. \n \nIf Reid knows he has only 59 votes, what are his options? A defeat just before the Christmas recess will look very bad for Obama. So will he postpone the vote? Or will he try some other parliamentary maneuver? I predict the latter. As Brinty wrote above, is there anything to stop him from turning to reconciliation in mid-stream? \n \nHere is a technical question: can Vice President Biden only vote when there is a mathematical tie -- 50\/50 or 49\/49 -- or is there any loophole that permits him to break a deadlock of any other kind? I know this sounds like a dumb question but I want to be sure that there is no previously untested mechanism that they can use. '); return false;">Quote</a></div> The power of the Congress and the President to offer just about any conceivable bribe to wavering Senators is enormous. I frankly do not believe that a single Democrat Senator will vote against cloture in December. Since Sanders is to the left of all of them, you can add his vote too. That leaves only Lieberman. On the other side Snowe is the only Republican whom I think might vote for cloture. So it looks like 59 votes maximum at this point.

If Reid knows he has only 59 votes, what are his options? A defeat just before the Christmas recess will look very bad for Obama. So will he postpone the vote? Or will he try some other parliamentary maneuver? I predict the latter. As Brinty wrote above, is there anything to stop him from turning to reconciliation in mid-stream?

Here is a technical question: can Vice President Biden only vote when there is a mathematical tie — 50/50 or 49/49 — or is there any loophole that permits him to break a deadlock of any other kind? I know this sounds like a dumb question but I want to be sure that there is no previously untested mechanism that they can use.

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]]> By: The HSA Coalition » Hennessey Revises his Odds for a Health Bill Passage http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13314 The HSA Coalition » Hennessey Revises his Odds for a Health Bill Passage Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:47:48 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13314 [...] Here are Keith Hennessey’s predictions, who was Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council, a position now held by Dr. Larry Summers for President Obama: [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13314','The HSA Coalition » Hennessey Revises his Odds for a Health Bill Passage'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13314','The HSA Coalition » Hennessey Revises his Odds for a Health Bill Passage','[...] Here are Keith Hennessey’s predictions, who was Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council, a position now held by Dr. Larry Summers for President Obama: [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Here are Keith Hennessey’s predictions, who was Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council, a position now held by Dr. Larry Summers for President Obama: [...]
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]]> By: Kevin Pond http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13287 Kevin Pond Thu, 19 Nov 2009 01:57:05 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13287 I want to thank you for always having the in-depth explanations and thinking the many possibilities through. As a college student, I really feel like I gain alot from reading your articles. Keep up the great work! <div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13287','Kevin Pond'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13287','Kevin Pond','I want to thank you for always having the in-depth explanations and thinking the many possibilities through. As a college student, I really feel like I gain alot from reading your articles. Keep up the great work! '); return false;">Quote</a></div> I want to thank you for always having the in-depth explanations and thinking the many possibilities through. As a college student, I really feel like I gain alot from reading your articles. Keep up the great work!
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]]> By: Tweets that mention Updated health care projections  |  KeithHennessey.com -- Topsy.com http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/comment-page-1/#comment-13280 Tweets that mention Updated health care projections  |  KeithHennessey.com -- Topsy.com Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:42:42 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/#comment-13280 [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by The ObamaCare Saga, Keith Hennessey. Keith Hennessey said: Updated health care projections: http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/ [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('13280','Tweets that mention Updated health care projections  |  KeithHennessey.com -- Topsy.com'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('13280','Tweets that mention Updated health care projections  |  KeithHennessey.com -- Topsy.com','[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by The ObamaCare Saga, Keith Hennessey. Keith Hennessey said: Updated health care projections: http:\/\/keithhennessey.com\/2009\/11\/18\/updated-health-care-projections\/ [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by The ObamaCare Saga, Keith Hennessey. Keith Hennessey said: Updated health care projections: http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/18/updated-health-care-projections/ [...]
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