On CBS’ Early Show today, Vice Presidential Economic Advisor Jared Bernstein emphasized the Administration’s new estimates that the stimulus has “saved or created” one million jobs. I won’t belabor the point that these estimates are unreliable.
But in a classic example of burying the lead, Dr. Bernstein was asked when he expected job growth.
Harry Smith: When does this economy start to create jobs on its own?
Dr. Bernstein: As far as the overall economy is concerned, private sector forecasters tell us that by the second half of next year, net job growth should be positive, unemployment should be coming down.
I hope this is expectations management. The beginning of the second half of next year is eight months away.
Here’s the follow-up question I’d like to see asked:
If these projections are correct and the economy loses jobs for the next eight months, how certain is economic recovery?
See for yourself, beginning at 02:38.