Comments on: The jobs battle

By: Хаус

Хаус — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:52:29 +0000

Благодарю!

By: Brooks

Brooks — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 04:02:54 +0000

Even if borrowed domestically (which half of it isn't) or if we taxed to fund the spending, I assume a shift from savings toward consumption generally boosts short-term GDP to some degree (the exception would be in an extreme condition of "crowding out" that I don't suppose would occur during a deep recession), and how much would depend on the size of the multiplier.

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By: dsm

dsm — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 04:16:50 +0000

kbh, what do you think of using the Fed's EMRATIO to track unemployment? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart...

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By: Moses Newsome

Moses Newsome — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 03:30:41 +0000

I know there is alot of speculation to where the job market is headed, but in all reality the only thing we can do is pray for the best and prepare for the worst. Changes in the economy must bring changes in the way we search for jobs and thats why many people are flocking to a jobsearch site i started, www.vlitzo.com which allows you not only to search jobs and post resumes but you can also upload video interviews to set yourself apart

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By: Howard

Howard — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:27:06 +0000

Amen Brother

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By: Howard

Howard — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:23:34 +0000

Agreed. Obama is a leftist who was trained by Saul Alinsky and other radicals. He despises business. Expecting business to respond is like the old adage "the beatings will stop when morale improves".

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By: srp

srp — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:55:29 +0000

I'm on a slightly different wavelength from Keith--I think the month-to-month forecasts and figures are pretty useless. Revisions to past data, shocks of all kinds, and other inhomogeneities meant that guessing about 9.4 versus 9.5 next month is useless. The only meaningful forecasts are one-significant-digit estimates from six months to two years out. I agree that it gets harder to predict as we go farther out, but we do have better economic explanations of what's going to happen given policy and conditions over that time frame than we do for small changes over short time frames. The problem, of course, is forecasting the policy and conditions as the horizon moves out. Wars and elections and weather and all kinds of exogenous stuff come out and screw up the "givens" in the estimate. One other point--you have to look at actual compensation, not just employment status. Lots of people are taking huge pay cuts and those may start to reverse before the employment numbers do. Then some of the temps and contractors may get permanent spots. Then discouraged workers are likely to reenter the workforce and further suppress improvement in the reported unemployment number. So the headline number will probably look pretty crappy even during an actual recovery.

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By: walt

walt — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:37:11 +0000

That jobless recovery had an unemployment rate of 6% in 2003 and 5.5% in 2004.

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By: Rich Vail

Rich Vail — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 22:29:09 +0000

Great explaination of a complicated topic. I posted the entire thing on my blog: http://thevailspot.blogspot.com It's literally the best explaination I've heard to date. Thanks Keith. Rich Vail The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.--Thomas Jefferson (the founder of the Democrativ Party--too bad they've lost their way)

Reply - http:\/\/thevailspot.blogspot.com<\/a> \nIt's literally the best explaination I've heard to date. Thanks Keith. \n \nRich Vail \nThe strongest reason for the people to retain the right to bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.--Thomas Jefferson (the founder of the Democrativ Party--too bad they've lost their way) '); return false;">Quote

By: J.S.Bridges

J.S.Bridges — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:26:45 +0000

Three points to be made, time after time, in reply to anything put out by The Won & Co. next year:

1) "Jobs saved and/or created" is total bulls**t, just another attempt at Advanced Lying With Statistics – remember, if you can't prove it (and they so-obviously can't), it's a lie. Government doesn't "create" or "save" jobs, anyway – except for making and filling more bureaucrat-drone slots, and failing to get rid of bureaucratic do-nothing deadwood.

2) Relatively short-term "trends" in unemployment (2 – 3 months), particularly those minor moves that may SEEM to signal a turn-around, have no useful, real-world meaning; pointing at such "trends" as supposedly-meaningful indications that "things are getting better, and our Gubmint did it" is wholesale bulls**t, too. When average unemployment, nationwide, goes down 2, 3 or 4 whole percentage points, THAT's a useful "trend."

3) Raw totals of "jobs gained last week/month/quarter" don't really mean much, either – if the people who go back to work are UNDERemployed (pay/benefits/relative job-security is/are substantially less than previously), then increased employment does NOT mean that the overall economy has improved substantially. An addition of 100,000 burger-flippers, car-washers and coffee-dispensers is NOT equal to adding the same number of accountants, technicians and engineers.

When the Obamacolytes and their Congresscritter helpmates start to mouth their spin in the runup to 2010 election time, keep hammering this, right in their faces.

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