Comments on: Scrambling for a macroeconomic message http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/ Your guide to American economic policy Fri, 12 Mar 2010 02:42:37 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc hourly 1 By: A Blue Pill for the Economy « The Confluence http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-3329 A Blue Pill for the Economy « The Confluence Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:19:33 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-3329 [...] in Dan Balz’s judgment: “Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('3329','A Blue Pill for the Economy « The Confluence'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('3329','A Blue Pill for the Economy « The Confluence','[...] in Dan Balz’s judgment: “Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] in Dan Balz’s judgment: “Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the [...]
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]]> By: Links for 2009-07-12 | Bear Market Investments http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-3273 Links for 2009-07-12 | Bear Market Investments Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:46:27 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-3273 [...] Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here. [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('3273','Links for 2009-07-12 | Bear Market Investments'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('3273','Links for 2009-07-12 | Bear Market Investments','[...] Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here. [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here. [...]
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]]> By: TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Fiscal Policy: The Obama Administration Is Not Making Much Sense These Days http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-3266 TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Fiscal Policy: The Obama Administration Is Not Making Much Sense These Days Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:41:09 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-3266 [...] Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the recession and the assertion that the White House wouldn’t have done anything differently had it known how bad things really were… [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('3266','TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Fiscal Policy: The Obama Administration Is Not Making Much Sense These Days'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('3266','TheTradingReport » Blog Archive » Fiscal Policy: The Obama Administration Is Not Making Much Sense These Days','[...] Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the recession and the assertion that the White House wouldn’t have done anything differently had it known how bad things really were… [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the recession and the assertion that the White House wouldn’t have done anything differently had it known how bad things really were… [...]
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]]> By: Fiscal Policy: The Obama Administration Is Not Making Much Sense These Days | Bailout and Financial Crisis News http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-3230 Fiscal Policy: The Obama Administration Is Not Making Much Sense These Days | Bailout and Financial Crisis News Sun, 12 Jul 2009 21:01:13 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-3230 [...] Scrambling for a macroeconomic message: It seems hard to square an assessment that the administration underestimated the severity of the recession and the assertion that the White House wouldn’t have done anything differently had it known how bad things really were… [...]
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]]> By: Links for 2009-07-12 | Bailout and Financial Crisis News http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-3180 Links for 2009-07-12 | Bailout and Financial Crisis News Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:00:16 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-3180 [...] Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here. [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('3180','Links for 2009-07-12 | Bailout and Financial Crisis News'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('3180','Links for 2009-07-12 | Bailout and Financial Crisis News','[...] Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here. [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Keith Hennessey, who used to have Larry Summers’ job in the Bush White House, on the challenges facing the White House in framing discussion of the effectiveness of the existing stimulus package. See Obama’s apparent answer here. [...]
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]]> By: Monthly employment data | INSIDE JOKES http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-3012 Monthly employment data | INSIDE JOKES Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:28:54 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-3012 [...] Source: keithhennessey.com Share this: [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('3012','Monthly employment data | INSIDE JOKES'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('3012','Monthly employment data | INSIDE JOKES','[...] Source: keithhennessey.com Share this: [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] Source: keithhennessey.com Share this: [...]
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]]> By: bammer http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-2947 bammer Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:11:17 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-2947 OBAMA'S STIMULUS IS INCREASING PRIVATE SECTOR UNEMPLOYMENT Look at what Louis Woodhill said in his July 6th article in RealClearMarkets GET READY FOR 14% UNEMPLOYMENT While doing nothing to boost demand, Obama's "stimulus" will depress PBI (Private Business Investment), and therefore employment. This is because the "stimulus" plan requires selling an additional $787 billion in government bonds. The money to buy these bonds will have to come from somewhere, and much of it will come from people who would otherwise invest in starting or expanding businesses. Indeed, the bonds will have to be priced so that this risk-free investment is more attractive to investors than their other alternatives. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the Federal government ran a deficit of $303 billion (and therefore had to sell $303 billion of new bonds) and business investment fell by 21.7%. In the first quarter of 2009, the Federal deficit was $650 billion and business investment fell by 37.3%. The economy is being forced to invest in Barack's Bailout Bonds rather than in businesses that create jobs. Virtually everything the Obama administration wants to do will have the effect of increasing unemployment. As bad as joblessness is now, be prepared for it to get much, much worse. http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/07/06/get_ready_for_14_percent_unemployment_97295.html http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PNFIC96 http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/nonresfi.htm<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('2947','bammer'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('2947','bammer','OBAMA\'S STIMULUS IS INCREASING PRIVATE SECTOR UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n\r\nLook at what Louis Woodhill said in his July 6th article in RealClearMarkets\r\n\r\nGET READY FOR 14% UNEMPLOYMENT\r\n\r\nWhile doing nothing to boost demand, Obama\'s \"stimulus\" will depress PBI (Private Business Investment), and therefore employment. This is because the \"stimulus\" plan requires selling an additional $787 billion in government bonds. The money to buy these bonds will have to come from somewhere, and much of it will come from people who would otherwise invest in starting or expanding businesses. Indeed, the bonds will have to be priced so that this risk-free investment is more attractive to investors than their other alternatives.\r\n\r\nIn the fourth quarter of 2008, the Federal government ran a deficit of $303 billion (and therefore had to sell $303 billion of new bonds) and business investment fell by 21.7%. In the first quarter of 2009, the Federal deficit was $650 billion and business investment fell by 37.3%. The economy is being forced to invest in Barack\'s Bailout Bonds rather than in businesses that create jobs.\r\n\r\nVirtually everything the Obama administration wants to do will have the effect of increasing unemployment. As bad as joblessness is now, be prepared for it to get much, much worse.\r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.realclearmarkets.com\/articles\/2009\/07\/06\/get_ready_for_14_percent_unemployment_97295.html\r\n\r\n http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/PNFIC96\r\n\r\n http:\/\/www.bea.gov\/briefrm\/nonresfi.htm'); return false;">Quote</a></div> OBAMA’S STIMULUS IS INCREASING PRIVATE SECTOR UNEMPLOYMENT

Look at what Louis Woodhill said in his July 6th article in RealClearMarkets

GET READY FOR 14% UNEMPLOYMENT

While doing nothing to boost demand, Obama’s “stimulus” will depress PBI (Private Business Investment), and therefore employment. This is because the “stimulus” plan requires selling an additional $787 billion in government bonds. The money to buy these bonds will have to come from somewhere, and much of it will come from people who would otherwise invest in starting or expanding businesses. Indeed, the bonds will have to be priced so that this risk-free investment is more attractive to investors than their other alternatives.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, the Federal government ran a deficit of $303 billion (and therefore had to sell $303 billion of new bonds) and business investment fell by 21.7%. In the first quarter of 2009, the Federal deficit was $650 billion and business investment fell by 37.3%. The economy is being forced to invest in Barack’s Bailout Bonds rather than in businesses that create jobs.

Virtually everything the Obama administration wants to do will have the effect of increasing unemployment. As bad as joblessness is now, be prepared for it to get much, much worse.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/07/06/get_ready_for_14_percent_unemployment_97295.html

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PNFIC96

http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/nonresfi.htm

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]]> By: Paul http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-2921 Paul Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:07:21 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-2921 Keith, Discussion of another stimulus will doubtless bring up the tax cut versus government spending "multiplier effect" debate. I believe Romer's research has favored tax cuts while Summers has been an avid supporter of more and more stimulus. As an undergraduate economics student I would be interested in your take on this debate, and if the data is even relevant given the political pressure on economic decision making.<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('2921','Paul'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('2921','Paul','Keith,\r\n\r\nDiscussion of another stimulus will doubtless bring up the tax cut versus government spending \"multiplier effect\" debate. I believe Romer\'s research has favored tax cuts while Summers has been an avid supporter of more and more stimulus. As an undergraduate economics student I would be interested in your take on this debate, and if the data is even relevant given the political pressure on economic decision making.'); return false;">Quote</a></div> Keith,

Discussion of another stimulus will doubtless bring up the tax cut versus government spending “multiplier effect” debate. I believe Romer’s research has favored tax cuts while Summers has been an avid supporter of more and more stimulus. As an undergraduate economics student I would be interested in your take on this debate, and if the data is even relevant given the political pressure on economic decision making.

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]]> By: Many mixed signals | KeithHennessey.com http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling/comment-page-1/#comment-2892 Many mixed signals | KeithHennessey.com Wed, 08 Jul 2009 23:34:50 +0000 http://keithhennessey.com/2009/07/08/scrambling-for-a-macroeconomic-message/#comment-2892 [...] President and Vice President have this week sent mixed and confusing signals on the macroeconomic picture.  [...]<div class="comment-remix-meta"><a href="#" class="replyto" onclick="replyto('2892','Many mixed signals | KeithHennessey.com'); return false;">Reply</a> - <a href="#" class="quote" onclick="quote('2892','Many mixed signals | KeithHennessey.com','[...] President and Vice President have this week sent mixed and confusing signals on the macroeconomic picture.  [...]'); return false;">Quote</a></div> [...] President and Vice President have this week sent mixed and confusing signals on the macroeconomic picture.  [...]
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